Advice on Elan Prices

[Jackonicko]

Good day and welcome.

Don't read on if discussion of prices is likely to upset or offend, or if you're going to get riled up about people talking down Elan prices.

Do read on if you want to try to work out what Elans are really worth, and please post away if you have helpful advice to offer to both buyers or sellers.

In an effort to keep seller's threads de-cluttered, I'm going to suggest that if you have a comment on prices or value, post away here - whether that's a sunny and optimistic "Looks a cracking first run up the ladder into Elan ownership to me" (which may invite a contradiction....) or equally, if you have a 'black cloud' piece of pessimism, or a "You've got to be kidding, £10,000 for that junker?" then post that here, and not on a seller's thread.

Do feel free to post-mortem any recent sales on this thread, too.

I hope that some elements of this first post (and any resulting comments) might usefully augment the Buyer's Guide, whose coverage of prices is perhaps a little out of date.

Jacko's record of prices achieved and asked
We are in a recession, and the prices of second hand cars (and especially of luxury and sportscars) do seem to be falling. I've been monitoring prices (asking and achieved) closely for a year, and I have compiled these prices into a word doc.

I'll happily supply this to any interested party - whether that's to a seller wondering what asking prices have been like for similar cars, of similar mileage, or whether it's to a buyer who may be interested what a car with a particular mileage might go for.

It may be of particular interest to new buyers, who will see, for example, that a particular car has been for sale since November, and that the price has tumbled in regular £500 increments, or that another car seems to have 'lost' mileage since the last time it was sold, or that a seller is no longer mentioning that it was a Cat D write off....

Most of the recent entries (since last November) are dated, and I've started to keep PDFs of the ads. I'll happily provide these to any interested party, too.

I welcome any additions to the document

The info I look for is:

PRICE, Model/Reg/S2 number, Mileage, Colour, Interior, Seller (P or T), Item number/PH/AT/C&C, and Date, + notes

eg:

£3,600 achieved , SE, H286YFL, 72k, Calypso, ½ leather, T Tony Anchors, Autotrader, 4/5/09, (asking £4.5k>£3.9k)

or:

£7,999 asking, S2, N844URX ‘679’, 80k, Calypso, ½ leather, T Epping Motor Co, C&C 01277 365415


The limitations of eBay as a guide to prices
There is no reliable Glass' or Parkers' Guide set of prices for Elans, and though the majority of achieved prices to which I have access are, of course, eBay prices, not all of them are, and though it may be suggested that eBay auction prices might 'skew' the results, I would say that an imperfect sample and skewed price estimates are better than uninformed guesswork or gut feeling.

I've had a very good sample of non-eBay achieved prices as a result of helping a number of people buy non eBay cars, and by helping a number of people sell 'off eBay'. From these, I would maintain that (for cars below £6K, at least) there is effectively no difference between eBay achieved prices and other achieved prices, or if there is one, it's insignificant.

It's not all bangers and cars with something to hide on eBay.

Many of the regular Trade sellers use eBay - usually with a 'fixed price' classified ad.

When it comes to auctions buyers can (and often do) set a reserve price, below which they won't sell.

eBay does of course have disadvantages - forcing the buyer to move quickly, and to invest time and effort checking out a car which someone else may then outbid him on. This can provoke the less sensible to buy a car without looking at it, or certainly without looking at it properly.

But eBay is easy to use and trasparent, and the buyer can see a pool of cars together, and can easily ascertain demand for them, what prices attract bids, and which prices don't.

And in my experience, it's pretty clear that winning bids and achieved prices on eBay closely mirror the achieved prices that we know about in private sales and ads in Pistonheads and Autotrader. Of course there are some mug punters who simply pay even the most ambitious and inflated asking price (or close to it), but generally speaking achieved prices on eBay are extremely representative of market values.

Of course, the result of a single auction may be unrepresentative, though once you can look at 100 achieved prices and top bids, you'll see that eBay prices are remarkably consistent.

For the exceptional cars, that are genuinely worth considerably more than other cars with similar mileage, eBay may not be an appropriate place to sell, and for many buyers there is undeniably a ceiling - "I wouldn't pay more than £X,XXX for a car on eBay." That's easy to overstate, as one look at the Aston Martins and Porsches on eBay would indicate.

But in the end there is no better guide to current achieved prices.

If a succession of 55-65,000 mile Elans sell for (say) £6,000-6,500 then that's a good indicator of current market value for a 55-65,000 mile Elan in average condition - and it's likely to be a more reliable and accurate indicator than gut feeling.

Market value is, after all, the price that buyers will pay, not what you think they ought to be prepared to pay.

Is Low mileage always best?
Thanks to RayD and others....

Cars with 100,000 miles on the clock are generally in worse overall condition than ones with low mileage, and of course high mileage is a drawback - and very high mileage (or the perception thereof) clearly has massive effect on price.
But these cars do seem to go on and on and it’s accepted that 100,000 miles is nothing for this engine.

Moreover, a very low mileage may sometimes be a two-edged sword. Many would prefer a well-looked after, relatively high mileage regularly used car to a low mileage garage queen that is rarely used. Using these cars keeps them honest, and avoids all of the problems that under-use brings.

M100-DMM put it very well when he wrote:

”Great condition isn't the sole preserve of the low mileage cars and people shouldn't be afraid of taking on a higher mileage car if it's been cared for - if they are, then they could be missing out on some cracking cars.”

He’s a wise old bird, and he also said:

“I'm on my third Elan. My first was a low mileage garage queen when I bought it. At first, it seemed superb but then all sorts of niggles arose. Those niggles weren't down to neglect - it had a full service history when I bought it and expense hadn't been spared on the car - but to the lack of use that the car had had in the three or four years before I bought it. The issues were all sorted out - at a price. Frankly, if I had my time again, I'd have bought a higher mileage car that had been cared for.

Indeed, the two Elans which I've owned since had higher mileages but also had excellent histories. Neither has proven anything like as troublesome as my first Elan. I was able to form my own conclusions as to the relative merits of a regularly used car over a garage queen.

Whilst it's true that higher mileages obviously mean that greater wear has been caused to some parts of the car, that isn't the whole story.

Firstly, the Elan is at an age when some components need to be replaced simply through age rather than mileage alone.

Secondly, there is every chance that at least some of the critical components on a higher mileage car that has been well maintained have been replaced and are fresher than those on a garage queen. Items such as clutches, brake pipes/hoses, hall effect sensor, dampers, seals, and the rear wishbones on the SE and NA models all spring to mind as potential examples.

Thirdly, Elans that sit idle for too long do suffer because of it. Sticky wastegates and seized calipers are just two of the more common issues that you can reasonably expect to find. They're not too expensive to fix but they do result in disappointment when you've just shelled out a premium price on a car.

For my part, I would always prefer to buy an Elan that has (in addition to bearing the obvious signs of being cared for and has a full history) been regularly used than one that has sat idle for too long. Others may, of course, have a different view.”

He added that:

“You don't need to do a lot of miles a year in an Elan to help keep it in good working order; regular use for even relatively short journeys (preferably including some non-urban mileage) should be enough. It's the cars that sit idle for months on end that seem to develop some annoying habits once they're pressed into more regular service.”

But at the end of the day, perhaps there's a mileage level for a 15-20 year old car below which it might suggest that you'll be buying all sorts of problems and glitches?

Talking down prices
I do not accept the contention that to discuss prices honestly is to "talk them down."

A few chaps chatting about prices on an internet bulletin board will reflect market trends – not shape them. No-one selling their Elan will be swayed by me as to what price they will settle for – they’ll aim high, and then be influenced by the reaction of buyers. Nor will our machinations have much effect on what a buyer will offer or pay.

In any case, I just report prices and price trends as I see them.

Price is a function of supply and demand.

An excess of supply will tend to drive price downward. An excess of demand will drive them up.

In a recession, there will be fewer buyers for luxuries of all kinds, whereas many people’s circumstances will change, and they will be forced to sell their pride and joy. Demand is depressed. Supply is loosened. Prices will tend to fall.

And after talking to chums who have old Porsches, it seems that it’s just as true for 911s as it is for us.

Asking prices being asked by dealers are irrelevant – what counts is what a car actually changes hands for - whether the cars sell, and how much the sellers drop their asking price to secure a sale.

If you have an educated, informed buyer, who pays what he thinks a car is worth, then no-one can really complain about an actual achieved price being too high or too low. It's just the market working as it should.

A car is worth exactly what the informed buyer will pay for it, after all.

I do think that generally, asking prices are a bit too far adrift of what people are paying, at the moment. As a result sellers are having to drop their prices repeatedly, or are being left with cars that won't sell. I feel a bit sorry for them, really, as nothing undermines a car's perceived value than successive price cuts - except perhaps the knowledge that it's been sitting their unsold for months on end. Many asking prices are pitched a bit high at the moment, for perfectly understandable reasons, and most trade prices are deliberately inflated to give some 'bargaining room'. There may be a danger if asking prices are too artificially high, as these could deter some buyers from even making an offer, thereby depressing demand and paradoxically leading to a reduction in values.

Unless you're on the cusp of buying your first Elan, no-one wants to see stupidly low prices, though I would personally argue that keeping prices low enough to be accessible will keep our community healthy, and might lead to an influx of enthusiastic youngsters to counterbalance some of us 'old farts'. If lower prices open up Elan ownership to people who are passionate about them, then so much the better. I'm not campaigning to reduce prices, though I'd rather see larger numbers of these cars on the road, maintaining a healthy community of owners and a big enough pool of cars to support a network of specialists and suppliers. I think that's preferable to seeing the older, rougher, higher mileage ones being broken for cheap spares and to maintain some kind of spurious exclusivity and scarcity value.

If a car is priced competitively at a level that's fair to both buyer and seller, with an asking price that's broadly in line with what other equivalent cars have fetched, then that's the right price. I'd always advise any buyer to just pay that asking price, and not to mess about taking the pi$$ with stupid lowball offers. My advice would be to just bite the seller's hand off and make sure that it's you that gets the car, and not someone else.

People should generally pay what a car is worth. Pay too much, and you may be being a fool to yourself (though you may choose to do so knowingly and deliberately for ease and time-saving, or because you'd fallen in love with a particular car and just had to have it). Pay too little and you're squeezing the seller a little too hard. And the best outcome is if prices are fair to both sellers and buyers.

Buying from a LEC seller
I would personally prefer to buy from particular sellers, who I like, trust and whose Elan know-how I respect.

That is, of course, only an opinion.

But where a seller is a regular seller, a regular contributor to LEC, and a pillar of this community, then he probably has a 'reputation' to look after, and is thus likely to have made damned sure that the car he is selling will do nothing to dent that reputation.

And even if that seller had bought in a car to sell (rather than selling their own day-to-day Elan) you could rely on them to know Elans inside out (not all sellers do) and to:
1) Describe it honestly
2) Be able to fix some of the niggles and make it a better bet for a buyer
3) Stand behind it after sale.

As such, I'd say that you can rely on their cars being more likely to be in the condition described, and you're likely to have a bit more 'comeback' if anything goes awry. That's just an opinion, though not one that should necessarily be dismissed too lightly.

It may also be that by buying from a ‘known’ LEC seller, a search of the site could indicate what has been done to the car in question, and might flag up any previous known problems that the owner had experienced with the car. (Don’t buy a blue one from Clemo – it’s had a small but perfectly formed Devonian in the boot!)

It could therefore be an additional 'confidence booster' to buy from a known LEC member.

My views of sellers like Clemo and SurferPhil (and Will B, in a slightly different respect) are, I'm sure, widely held, and these sellers clearly deserve the reputations they have. That is not to imply or infer that any other sellers are necessarily any less knowledgeable, any less scrupulous, or any less decent.

[Jackonicko]

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll? ... 0319377664

With a starting price of £2,500, the 92,600 mile, BRG, Solihull-based NA (?) H194UJX did not attract a single bid on eBay recently. Barney 10_2 (who seems to have bought her in September 08 for £2,750 and put about 1,000 miles on her) had previously put her on eBay back in December, when she failed to reach reserve at £2,750. (It may have been after no bids then, as well).

Described as having ‘a couple of light scuffs to the front bumper’, and fitted with BMW Mini leather seats, she looks pretty reasonable – and £2,500 doesn’t seem bad.

I wonder why she didn’t sell?

[HJ2]

Amen.

[ektrolleyboy]

I personally think this is a recipe for disaster!
And people who aren't in the know, may take and use the information 100% instead of forming their own opinion.

I think there's a lot of room for alienation here and whether I agree with peoples prices or not, if I'm not buying it or selling it then I shouldn't be getting involved as such an outsider...

Jackonicko. You old risk taker you. On your head be it.
I'm not getting involved with this one!

[Jackonicko]

Doug, Baldyash, M&A and I exchanged views about J700TUS on:

ALL CARS ON EBAY.

viewtopic.php?f=49&t=4973&start=440

and on

Realistic price for an S2?

She’s a well-looked after Palacio S2, with 53,000 miles on the clock.

Baldyash reported that he had “actually seen this one B4 I bought my SE. Its not in bad nick. Had a front end spray & drives as it should or so it appears to me…..” and that it “Had uprated brakes & a posh alarm.” He didnt buy it because “eventually I couldn’t get my head around a purple car.”

The car started being advertised (on Autotrader and as an eBay classified) last Autumn at £8,000 and did not sell.

Max opined that she was "well worth the money at that price."

The price dropped to £7,500 in or around December, but the car did not sell at that price.

The price on Autotrader then dropped to £7,000.

She still didn’t sell.

(Were it a bargain, you'd have expected it to have been 'snapped up' at such a price).

The frustrated owner put her up as an eBay auction, and she reached £4,900, failing to meet the (undisclosed) reserve price.

Did those who went to see her spot problems that made her worth so much less than what we might think of as the “going rate” for an S2 with that mileage?

I’d have expected her to reach more than £6k.

(I said: “My bet is that she’ll get to about £6,250, which may or may not meet the seller’s reserve).

Is there effectively a £5k ceiling on eBay Elan auctions?

Is Palacio such a ‘Marmite’ colour that it’s worth that much less than a more mainstream colour?

Or is the market price for an average condition 50k mile S2 now more like £5k than £6k?

[max and andy]

We think palacio must be a Marmite colour. A & M

[Jackonicko]

I dunno, Andy. It's not as 'safe' as the more common colours, but it's classy and it's contemporary (the problem with Medina is that it's really quite dated).

The low price 'achieved' by J700TUS surprises me.

[Jackonicko]

So the market spoke, and the famous Palacio S2 J700TUS ‘540’ (an S2 with 56.8k miles, eBay Item number 140319901715) failed to make reserve, with a top bid of just £4,900 - far short of the £8k she was up for before Christmas.

H15SUS (a BRG SE with 83.5 k miles - eBay item number 280345240405) similarly failed to meet its reserve with a highest bid of £3,300.

The BRG NA with the Mini seats H194UJX (Item number: 140319377664) failed to attract any bids at all, despite a low start price of £2,500. She only has 92k on the clock.

Others did sell - B1KLA (33k miles) for £6,000, for example.

[Jackonicko]

J726RGS, a half-leather, Calypso Red SE with 126,000 miles on the clock, failed to meet reserve with a high bid of £2,550. (eBay Item number: 280348199321)

A pretty predictable result, given the nice weather and pretty pictures - not a bad price for a car nudging 130,000 miles.

I wonder how much more the seller thought that she'd fetch?

[Jackonicko]

The aqua blue SE in Manchester (J641SP*) with 60K on the clock got interest from eight bidders, but, at £3,950 failed to meet the seller’s reserve.

A reserve of £4,000 or more for this car? How much did he expect to get? OK, it’s relatively low mileage, but it’s ½ leather and is SORNed, with no MoT, with a missing door carpet.

And it hasn’t moved for 12 months, and has ridiculous 17-in alloys…..

£3,950 seemed like a pretty good price, to me.

[RayD]

We have a forum rule that prices of cars offered for sale on the forum may not be discussed openly but if you want advice on prices based on an extensive analysis of what Elans are actually selling for at the moment then see Here and enter into a private discussion with the originator of that thread.

I imagine newcomers will be bewildered at a rule preventing car prices being discussed.

I don’t think Jackonicko deserves his own section on the Forum, or for it to be advertised on each new person’s arrival.

Other people could have continued discussing prices when the need arose without upsetting anyone. Presumably, as they did for the first few years of the LEC. When the prices start rising I’m sure they’ll be happy to do it again.

In my opinion the section ought to be removed.

Ray

[Breed]

We have a forum rule that prices of cars offered for sale on the forum may not be discussed openly but if you want advice on prices based on an extensive analysis of what Elans are actually selling for at the moment then see Here and enter into a private discussion with the originator of that thread.

I imagine newcomers will be bewildered at a rule preventing car prices being discussed.

I don’t think Jackonicko deserves his own section on the Forum, or for it to be advertised on each new person’s arrival.

Other people could have continued discussing prices when the need arose without upsetting anyone. Presumably, as they did for the first few years of the LEC. When the prices start rising I’m sure they’ll be happy to do it again.

In my opinion the section ought to be removed.




Ray

I agree, no matter how much you talk about it it is still supply and demand fixes prices.


Bill

[RayD]

Thank you Bill,

Hopefully other members will express their opinion so a judgment can be made as to whether it’s a good idea to leave things as they are.

Ray

[Nickydee]

We have a forum rule that prices of cars offered for sale on the forum may not be discussed openly but if you want advice on prices based on an extensive analysis of what Elans are actually selling for at the moment then see Here and enter into a private discussion with the originator of that thread.

I imagine newcomers will be bewildered at a rule preventing car prices being discussed.

I don’t think Jackonicko deserves his own section on the Forum, or for it to be advertised on each new person’s arrival.

Other people could have continued discussing prices when the need arose without upsetting anyone. Presumably, as they did for the first few years of the LEC. When the prices start rising I’m sure they’ll be happy to do it again.

In my opinion the section ought to be removed.

Ray

Ray

Am I right in thinking you are suggesting that the section is removed and the ban of Jackonicko of discussing prices elsewhere lifted. If so than I agree.

Nick

[RayD]

Sorry for being vague Nick,

I was referring to removing the Élan Price Discussion section and the included posts.

I disagree with the idea of directing newcomers to it as a place to get advice on prices based on an extensive analysis.

As far as Jackonicko is concerned, at the present time he can say what he likes without fear of contradiction.

Bill,

I don’t think it is off topic.

It doesn’t want moving, unless you move Nigel’s post with it and give it a title related to “newbie and forum” preferably with the word “Lady” in it to increase the viewing figures.

Ray

[Nickydee]

Sorry for being vague Nick,

I was referring to removing the Élan Price Discussion section and the included posts.

I disagree with the idea of directing newcomers to it as a place to get advice on prices based on an extensive analysis.

As far as Jackonicko is concerned, at the present time he can say what he likes without fear of contradiction.

Bill,

I don’t think it is off topic.

It doesn’t want moving, unless you move Nigel’s post with it and give it a title related to “newbie and forum” preferably with the word “Lady” in it to increase the viewing figures.

Ray

Ray

Have I misunderstand the rules as I thought Jackonnicko and I guess everybody was banned in discussing prices apart from the Elan Price discussion section.

Regards

Nick

[Nickydee]

Sorry for being vague Nick,

I was referring to removing the Élan Price Discussion section and the included posts.

I disagree with the idea of directing newcomers to it as a place to get advice on prices based on an extensive analysis.

As far as Jackonicko is concerned, at the present time he can say what he likes without fear of contradiction.

Bill,

I don’t think it is off topic.

It doesn’t want moving, unless you move Nigel’s post with it and give it a title related to “newbie and forum” preferably with the word “Lady” in it to increase the viewing figures.

Ray

Ray

I agree its not off topic- mods clearly think otherwise.

Ray still not clear if you disagree with the "advice" on prices or just where it is positioned.

Nick

[RayD]

Nick,

I don’t have the slightest interest in discussing the price of cars, or for that matter the price of anything else.

If you search for the word in my posts you’ll find I’ve used it 2 or 3 times since I started in 2006 ... until today that is.

I disagree with Jackonicko having his own section on the forum and it being brought to newcomer’s attention in glowing terms.

But, if people think otherwise, I’ll gladly go along with it.

Regards

Ray

[Elanlover]

I disagree with Jackonicko having his own section on the forum and it being brought to newcomer’s attention in glowing terms.

To be clear, its not Jackonico's section no more than it is anyone else's. If he wants to monopolize it more power to him. I suspect that the reason he is the prime poster there is because few others care to discuss the subject.

[Nige]

This section does not belong to any one individual. It is the one section of the forum where the current market value of Elans may be discussed openly and honestly and strong but polite views may be exchanged. Any such discussion elsewhere on the forum will either be moved here or deleted. Some single mark car forums ban price discussion in public in its entirety. That is a step I do not wish to take and consider that anyone wishing to buy an Elan who finds this site would expect to get an idea of what they might need to pay to purchase a car based on it's condition, history and current market conditions from this forum. This is the area of the forum where they may do that. The one topic that may not be discussed openly is specific discussion of cars belonging to LEC members and advertised for sale on this site. All discussion on those is a matter for private discussion between buyer and seller.