2010 price trends - a brief observation

[Jackonicko]

I think I've noticed a very odd phenomenon.

If you confine your observations to the bottom end of the market - high mileage cars, Cat Ds, cars needing expensive work doing, prices actually seem to be holding up very well.

I was surprised to see a Pac Blue with 175k miles (Ebay item 330427801732, ended on 3 May) reach £2,596 - but perhaps I should not have been - a succession of traditionally cheap Elans have done well on eBay this Spring.

At the other end of the market, perhaps with buyers affected by the recession, cars that would traditionally have fetched 'silly money' seem to be going for rather less than they used to - or are hanging around a bit longer if priced at levels that would have seen them 'fly out of the door' last year.

This means that it's a great time to buy, of course, and that well-priced cars should sell quickly. This in itself may trigger a buying fever, and prices may creep upwards again.

However, if the prices of the cheapies are holding up well, perhaps the more expensive cars' prices will follow suit as the weather improves? Or could the prices of more expensive Elans have taken a permanent stumble as cheap Elises have become even cheaper? Or is this just a recessionary glitch?

[martylemoo]

I think Elise prices, if anything have increased. 2 years ago an S160 could easily have been had for £10k now however most standard S1's are fetching 10k and a decent S160 is between 12 and 15k.

S1 Elise were in the Times top 10 appreciating assets last month.

[speed-demon]

I too coming from a car trade background have noticed the prices. SE's seem to be staying strong while 80,000 mile S2's have settled to a nice cheap rate not too far from SE values. This basically means that prices will take a turn soon (for the better). This usually means a small rise and a 'stick' in values for a few years. Another 10 years and the prices will rise for the really good cars and mileage will become almost obsolete once these cars hit 30.
Elise S1's seem very strong right now with minimal difference between a low mileage early S1 and an average mileage/use S2-111R.

If you want a real tip though- And remember where you read this. Buy a Ferrari 328-GTS now. And watch it double over the next 10 years! It's the next Dino 246...

[ashm]

After my accident I noticed that prices seemed to have risen slightly since I bought mine early last year, certainly for sub-80k cars. Still got one at what I reckon was quite a good price though, I'm not sure the higher priced cars are actually shifting much in practice.
I still think the Elan is a total bargain at current price levels, though. Hard to see prices dropping much below current levels for well kept cars, but there's certainly room for them to go up in the long term.

Anybody thinking of selling might fancy waiting to gamble on the upcoming Top Gear feature being positive (unlikely as that might be!), although anything short of a total panning will at least bring the car back to the attention of a general public who largely appear to have forgotten it ever existed!

Adam

[Jackonicko]

VERY good point, Adam.

[DavidEJM]

If you want a real tip though- And remember where you read this. Buy a Ferrari 328-GTS now. And watch it double over the next 10 years! It's the next Dino 246...

I've been thinking that too, was sorely tempted, when I changed my car last year, to use a cheap run around as my daily car and put a 328 in the garage. The only problem I felt was the high cost for servicing and repairs. But it has to be a good bet now doesn't it?

[Jackonicko]

I don't doubt you blokes, but why do you think that? In ten years time, the 328 could be looking VERY dated as they're very square (whereas the 348 and 355 look more 'timeless' to me - like the Dino 206 and 246 always did), even if Ferrari are still as fashionable and investable.

[speed-demon]

I absolutely stand by it.
No-one wants a 348 today and the feeling will mostly remain I believe. The 355 will sell in a heart beat all day long, but there are too many around and too many of them have had long term use for it to be worth any great amounts of money in ten years time.
The 328 has risen two or three grand in the last year or so. Almost all of the cars are low mileage and from the era where Ferrari's were used once every blue moon and by wealthy enthusiasts. Too many average Joes own Ferrari's these days... And most importantly. The 328 is a proper 80's icon and only ran for a short period of time. Icons will always dictate collecters premiums if they're supplied in limited numbers.
Watch this space!

[Gee0]

If you want a real tip though- And remember where you read this. Buy a Ferrari 328-GTS now. And watch it double over the next 10 years! It's the next Dino 246...

and would also add the 308 in there as a good investment, I believe they are at their lowest price right now and will only gain, (Just my 2 cent)

[RayD]

I think I've noticed a very odd phenomenon.

I don’t think it’s odd Jon,

I think its normal.

I think your perception of Elan values will change now you have good low mileage one of your own.

You might even start to find it irritating when other people seem to be pulling them down.

Ray

[Jackonicko]

I was trying to leave my opinion as to the desirability of the phenomenon to one side, but no, not at all, Ray.

It remains my view that the cheaper they are, the more chance there is that people will be able to afford them. I don't like it that the real entry level cars seem to be getting more expensive, as that doesn't seem the best way to get new blood into the community.

I'm naturally delighted that low mileage cars are more affordable, as I've been able to get one! But if forced to decide which I'd like to see cheaper, I think I'd rather see cheaper entry level cars, on the whole, though selfishly, of course I'm pleased as punch at having been able to 'upgrade'.

[RayD]

Jon,

I don’t think being cheaper makes them more desirable, and affordability doesn’t come into it.

Classic cars have always been more sort after when the prices have been higher.

As for “getting new blood into the community” I’ve mentioned it before – Lotus has stopped making them, there’s only so many and someone owns each one. You're talking as though there were an endless supply.

Ray

[dapinky]

Have to agree with Ray on this one - i don't know if actual prices make a huge dufference to purchasers.

I see a hell of a lot of 'youths' (for want of a better word), ie, 17 - 24 years (now doesn't that make me sound old!) who are spending much more than the cost of an elan (even a good one) on a hot-hatch or similar, so elans (and elises) are well within their grasp.

I also see a lot of people of my sort of age, who have got to the stage in life where there may be a couple of quid left in the pot after all the bills are paid (now the kids are not such a burden, and the mortgage is deminishing (in real terms)).

In between, is where you are always likely to find a drought of new owners - starting on the property ladder/familly/threat of redundancy all take a toll on prioritisation of where to spend ones money....

...either way, it isn't like a Ferrarri or an Aston when it comes to pricing, so i don't believe the actual purchase price has a huge bearing on it.

[Jackonicko]

Ray,

I was referring to the desirability (or otherwise) of Elan prices being cheap, not about the desirability of the cars themselves.

I think that as people get out of Elan ownership, it's good if they're replaced by people who are young, and keen, and who are going to drive them and not keep them as investments. I'm not talking about teenagers and tearaways, but blokes who perhaps can justify splashing out £3-6k, but who would not have wanted to spend £7-10k).

I realise that my opinion on this may not be widely shared, but it is honestly held.

And nor is it likely to change just because I've now bought a good one.

DaPinky,

I can tell you that the previous fall in prices at the lower end of the market was absolutely critical in my buying one, rather than another MGB or Audi Coupe or Quattro.

The more recent drop in prices of better ones made a similarly huge difference, allowing me to upgrade.

[RayD]

I was referring to the desirability (or otherwise) of Elan prices being cheap, not about the desirability of the cars themselves.

I understand Jon, and I hoped I was talking about the same thing.

I think that as people get out of Elan ownership, it's good if they're replaced by people who are young, and keen, and who are going to drive them and not keep them as investments. I'm not talking about teenagers and tearaways, but blokes who perhaps can justify splashing out £3-6k, but who would not have wanted to spend £7-10k).

The only thing we can all do at LEC to ensure it happens is to keep talking the prices down, sell our cars for as little as possible and do everything we can to make sure others do the same.

I realise that my opinion on this may not be widely shared, but it is honestly held.

It’s because your opinion is fundamentally wrong.

And nor is it likely to change just because I've now bought a good one.

I think it will inevitably change because you've bought a good one ... which is where I came in.

Ray

[Jackonicko]

Ray,

We're going to have to agree to disagree, I think.

There are plenty of people out there 'talking up' Elan prices - or expressing an optimistic view of them, and I'm content to be a bit of a lone voice offering an alternative point of view.

If you want to call it 'talking down' prices, then you're entirely free to do so. I prefer to think of it as reporting price trends as I see them honestly, with the explicit aim of trying to help new Elanners pay a fair price to join us.

At the moment, I find myself 'talking up' the price of cheaper, high mileage cars, and talking down the price of the better ones. That's just the way I see it.

[whippit]

money seems to be going into top end cars at the mo three months ago, a mate of mine struggled to get 20k for his mint 308 gtb with 36 thou on the clock,
you cannot find a a 308 in that condition for less than 30 now, same with 400 and 412 , you could pick a good one up 6 to 10 grand, no chance now,
i think the same has happened with the elan, or theres a lot of euro's flying about the shite pound,
i still would struggle to get any thing near what ive spent if i decided to sell mine,
markets go up and down all the time its choosing the best time if your buying or selling

[Nickydee]

At the moment, I find myself 'talking up' the price of cheaper, high mileage cars, and talking down the price of the better ones. That's just the way I see it.

Jon, Pure coincidence that you have just sold the former and brought the latter.

[Jackonicko]

That's part of the reason that I know what prices are doing, Nick.

Along with looking at a lot of cars for other people.