I think physics is the better option to investigate the cause of this one......
....all the symptoms are just a lack of adhesion between the paint and the laquer, causing it to 'bloom' and then lift away.
I'd be surprised if it is a chemical reaction (though not unknown, if the panel has ever been painted - other than original factory

- then there may be a chemical reaction, usually between primer and topcoat - not usually between colour and laquer)
It can be possible to remove the offending laquer and leave the colourcoat intact - easier with a solid colour like red, than with a metalic like blue - and then reapply a clearcoat laquer.
Personally, i would just take the bull by the nettle and give the paint a good rubdown, re-colour and re-laquer instead of trying to patch it up......
....it may well be that if you use a gloss 2-pak paint (i used Lechler stuff), then you wont need a clear-coat applied anyway - but if you use a 1-pak or water-based colour, then it will have a dull finish until laquered.
If you dont have access to spray equipment, but fancy having a go, then with solid colours it can be done - simply mix the paint and activator in a jar, and brush it on with a soft paintbrush - with the right mix (usually 2:1, but i'd go a tad thinner) it will flow well and you will have minimum brushmarks. Once the paint is cured, rub it down with progressively finer wet & dry (used wet), finishing of with a really fine (2000 grit) paper, and G3 rubbing compound - on a panel the size you are talking about, it shouldn't take too long, but be careful to put enough paint on to start with so you dont rub through it. Then you can use an aerosol of laquer if needed.
If spraying, just a nice thin dusting of colour, repeated after 15 minutes, and then a covering coat after a further 20 minutes will be plenty - modern paint doesn't need a great thickness to get the depth of colour, due to the pigments used, and the depth of shine can be obtained with the laquer.
Failing that, a bodyshop didn't ought to want an arm and a leg for the job.