electric cars

[nitroman]

I found it somewhat funny to read that the number one factor affecting the resale value of electric cars bought today will be the technology found in electric cars three years hence. For instance, Chevy says that it will double the range of the Volt within three years due to advances in battery technology. Beyond petrol prices (forcast to be $4/gallon in the USA in 2015) or any other factor, the improved technology of the 2015 electric car(s) will make their older siblings obsolete by comparison! At the same time, our Elans, although ever more antiquated, will still be limited production (limited availability) unique automobiles. Oh the irony of it.

[lotos]

Nah, I think the values are re-saleability are and will be solid. The original Honda Insight came out in 1999 and still commands quite a hefty resale value, and in fact is still ranked as the most efficient EPA certified gasoline-fueled vehicle ever. The Prius came out in 2001 and have no more depreciation than any other cars in its class. If anything, they do quite well. The batteries have long warranties, hold up well, and the onboard computers keep them in good shape for a very long time.

I know you were referencing electric cars, but I don't see battery technology changing very fast in the automotive world. It took a 14 years to get lithium batteries into hybrid cars when we all have had lithium batteries in our laptops and cell phones for at least that long. The next battery technology may well take a decade to show up in production models, by which time depreciation on a used car isn't really an issue. To have an effect on depreciation, they would have to become obsolete within 3 years IMHO. That isn't going to happen.

What may well happen (well, frankly, what IS happening) is that more companies will produce electric cars, so you'll have many more options in 3-5 years time than you do today. The Volt and Leaf basically stand alone, and in 3 years they may well have 6-10 opponents in the field. But will that make the used ones obsolete or un-sellable? I highly doubt it.

I put my money where my mouth is, we've owned a hybrid for years and are looking to buy another (to replace our 2nd gasoline-only car) in the near future. You pay more up front, to be sure, but you get either stellar fuel economy or terrific performance AND stellar fuel economy. And they're a heck of a lot of fun to drive.

And BTW - how the heck can they forecast what gas prices will be in 4 years? They don't even know what they'll be tomorrow. They're nearly $4 right now, on a steady incline the last 3 years.

[nitroman]

The original 1999 Honda Insight was a technlogical tour de force. I still remember driving one ten years ago. In everyway, statistically, the design details, mechanical integrations evident under the skin, etc.; they took the high mileage concept as far as an engineer could. The only fault, and it is a BIG fault, is that the car darted left & right like an Alqaeda suicide bomber on his last mission (at any speed over 70mph). Maybe the super-high-mileage tyres tracked in grooves, or maybe it was an unsolvable suspension problem. Either way it turned me off to an otherwise very impressive engineering excercise.

[racerstev]

The Volt and Leaf have company. My local dealer has 2 of these...

http://i.mitsubishicars.com/miev/features


Steve

[tigerdog]

I'm impressed with the preliminary info on the Fisker Atlantic:

If they really come in at about $40K (after tax incentives, etc.) it'll be near the top of the price/tech/style heap. BTW, I saw a Fisker Karma on the street in my neighborhood the other day. Stunning car. Proportions similar to a Maserati sedan but without looking like a Buick, which the Maser does.

[ailwyn]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17428818

How about going back to the future?

[nitroman]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17428818

How about going back to the future?

Or back to the past?
http://www.forgottenfiberglass.com/?p=20934 (steam sports car, 1963) Never underestimate what someone can do in their garage!

[dramson]

it might deppreciate i value but it does not go very far downhill as we have seen the trends of the car prices since it came out years ago. i think that its still a matter of the quality of the production and some point of limited availability would also play a part in reselling the electric cars we have today becasue at some point they will probably stop production of the old models but some people take that as an advantage becasue you car becomes unique and limited edition so we cannot really say or now.

[nitroman]

Everyone says we should get away from fossil fuels. The truth instead, no matter what your position on the matter, is that fossil fuels will get away from us simply because we are using them up. USA peak production occured in 1970, and since 2008 experts have kept saying world production will decrease "next" year (they've been wrong so far). They won't be wrong forever though.

The truth is the world's countries will continue to chase the cheapest energy. As long as that's petrol we'll continue to pump it from the ground. Sometime before we are finally drilling in the Marianas Trench petrol will become comparatively too expensive, and we'll stop going after new sources.

Interesting petrol facts:
The USA was an oil exporter through 1959, and the world's largest producer for most of petrol history.
Oil was first discovered in the Middle East in 1938, but they were not an oil presence for many years to come.
When oil from the Middle East was denied the West in 1973 we tapped Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico & the North Sea for the first time.

Although I've undergone something of a Damascene conversion on the topic, people who think solar & wind-power are sufficient to supply our future needs still tick me off, because simply, they are ignorant of the facts & thus stupid. However, people who say 'no' to external fossil sources (Obama's position to Canadian oil-sands) tick me off more. Would you rather have China burn the world's remaining oil reserves with their lack of emission controls, or have reserves burned in the USA or Europe?

Is it possible to continue burning liquid energy that isn't fossil fuel? Sure. Look at Brazil. But their fuel is $6 per gallon, and few countries can grow (tropical) sugarcane in the quantity Brazil can. Note that ethanol is carbon neutral. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_in_Brazil

[ashm]

people who think solar & wind-power are sufficient to supply our future needs still tick me off, because simply, they are ignorant of the facts & thus stupid

Only if our appetites stay as gluttonous as they currently are. Tidal, hydroelectric, wind, solar and geothermal could potentially meet our needs if we can also become much less wasteful in how we actually use the energy, and transition away from high embedded energy materials. Industrial loads are very significant, and gas & electricity consumption at many industrial sites can be cut by cut by 30-60% just by sorting out the lighting and heating systems. The main problem is that most companies focus on incredibly short term priorities, so that they end up selecting very wasteful and expensive technology because it has the lowest up-front cost.
Example: I recommend that a large warehouse upgrade to modern lighting systems, which would save £250k per year, pay back the capital within 2 years and save the company a fortune thereafter. Total no-brainer, but site and regional management won't approve it because everybody's annual bonuses would be hammered by the capital cost in year 1. In effect, most companies I've worked with won't approve _any_ capital investments unless they're cash positive within year 1. Daft.
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[nitroman]

Understand what you're saying, but that goes back to the ancient wish "If only people were better," there'd be no murder, rape, hunger, and on and on. To think human nature will suddenly change just because it's the right thing to do is a wish unfullfilled for all mankind.

With China & India industrializing and the upward trend of populations everywhere I think overall energy DEMAND will continue going up. For instance, 20 years ago there were less than 1 million private cars in China. Now they are the largest car market in the world with over 14 million sold EVERY YEAR! That's more than ALL of EUROPE combined. I realistically don't foresee sensible consumption refitting happening on nearly fast enough a scale to counter worldwide growth. Indiginous energy reserves in India & China are primarily coal, which burns much dirtier than most other energy sources. China is now building power plants on a scale unprecedented in human history.

Only if our appetites stay as gluttonous as they currently are. Tidal, hydroelectric, wind, solar and geothermal could potentially meet our needs if we can also become much less wasteful in how we actually use the energy, and transition away from high embedded energy materials. Industrial loads are very significant, and gas & electricity consumption at many industrial sites can be cut by cut by 30-60% just by sorting out the lighting and heating systems. The main problem is that most companies focus on incredibly short term priorities, so that they end up selecting very wasteful and expensive technology because it has the lowest up-front cost.
Example: I recommend that a large warehouse upgrade to modern lighting systems, which would save £250k per year, pay back the capital within 2 years and save the company a fortune thereafter. Total no-brainer, but site and regional management won't approve it because everybody's annual bonuses would be hammered by the capital cost in year 1. In effect, most companies I've worked with won't approve _any_ capital investments unless they're cash positive within year 1. Daft.
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[nitroman]

Example: I recommend that a large warehouse upgrade to modern lighting systems, which would save £250k per year, pay back the capital within 2 years and save the company a fortune thereafter. Total no-brainer, but site and regional management won't approve it because everybody's annual bonuses would be hammered by the capital cost in year 1. In effect, most companies I've worked with won't approve _any_ capital investments unless they're cash positive within year 1. Daft.
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Ash,

Possible analogy for you to use: Fruit trees. When you plant an olive tree you won't get an olive for 7 years, and you can't plant just one, you need a whole orchard to be an olive farmer, but people do it. And yet you are suggesting nothing so draconian.

[ashm]

Possible analogy for you to use: Fruit trees. When you plant an olive tree you won't get an olive for 7 years, and you can't plant just one, you need a whole orchard to be an olive farmer, but people do it. And yet you are suggesting nothing so draconian.

Oh, the people in question absolutely recognise that it's a good investment, and that it'd be good for the company. The problem is that they won't approve it: they don't care if they save the company money in the long term - they'll be away in another job somewhere else in 3 years' time and nobody will know or care that they made a good decision. However, if expenditure goes up this year then they won't get their bonus. Initiative: Rejected!
Adam

[ashm]

Understand what you're saying, but that goes back to the ancient wish "If only people were better," there'd be no murder, rape, hunger, and on and on. To think human nature will suddenly change just because it's the right thing to do is a wish unfullfilled for all mankind.

With China & India industrializing and the upward trend of populations everywhere I think overall energy DEMAND will continue going up. For instance, 20 years ago there were less than 1 million private cars in China. Now they are the largest car market in the world with over 14 million sold EVERY YEAR! That's more than ALL of EUROPE combined. I realistically don't foresee sensible consumption refitting happening on nearly fast enough a scale to counter worldwide growth. Indiginous energy reserves in India & China are primarily coal, which burns much dirtier than most other energy sources. China is now building power plants on a scale unprecedented in human history.

I agree to an extent. In my experience people will often do either:
- whatever is in their short term interest, or
- as little as possible.

But there are occasional changes for the better. We stopped using CFCs, and asbestos, and DDT, and created building standards and so on, all of which caused considerable inconvenience and expense for a while. On the other hand, we didn't stop using whale oil until the whales pretty much ran out...
Adam

[nitroman]

But there are occasional changes for the better. We stopped using CFCs, and asbestos, and DDT, and created building standards and so on, all of which caused considerable inconvenience and expense for a while. On the other hand, we didn't stop using whale oil until the whales pretty much ran out...
Adam

Did you see the Top Gear episode where Jeremy unscrewed a connection to vent the freon out of May's 1986 Rolls, just to be a peevish dick? That would have been illegal in this country... not like the freon police are constantly hovering. It's the only thing those entertaining idiots have ever done which didn't sit well with me.

Ambergris. It's (chemically/mechanically broken-down but NOT) digested squid beak they scrape out of a whale's bung-hole. Its primary use is in VERY expensive ladies perfume because it traps the scent to keep it from immediately evaporating or physically being scraped off. So, women rub whale poop on and have for 200 years. Per ounce it's more expensive than gold today. http://books.google.com/books?id=F0CKIxwLT-oC

[Fubar1764]

Hey Nitro! I guess this thread came about because of our discussion about getting a Prius?

[lotos]

I'm finally putting my money where my mouth is, and getting a Nissan Leaf electric car. Hopefully today or tomorrow, the deal has already been hashed out over email and phone (so much better than hours in the sales office, thank god it's 2013 already). My Audi A3 will be going to Craigslist this weekend I suppose.

[Fubar1764]

Picked up a Prius last October. In 6mo, have put on 20k mi on her! Drinking regular unleaded, I've been averaging about 43mpg. This is a fantastic average! I used to think that an oil burning hybrid would be even better, but with diesel running higher than premium, I think the running costs would be substantially higher on a diesel hybrid.
How do you like the Leaf?
I think we Lotus folks are looking at alternative drive systems more openly if critically than, say, muscle car folks - we understand the advantages of adding lightness!

[lotos]

It's a fun car. The lack of a transmission means that you put your foot down and watch the numbers go 40, 45, 50, 55, 60 without feeling anything. So it's not a sports car, but it is fast and easy to speed in. It's just instant acceleration and I find it a joy to drive so far. Plus it has all sorts of gadgets and fun information to digest on the screens which I enjoy, too.

[DavidEJM]

I've been thinking of ordering a Renault Zoe to use as a run around for work. Looks pretty and is enough for the majority of my driving. It will be a strange step from my CLS though.

I'd be interested to see how you get on with the Nissan over the next few months.